Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - February 12th, 2023

Sunday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (14-3). Oddsmakers peg the Eagles as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 52%, leaving the Chiefs with a 48% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Eagles -1.0 with a Game Total of 51.0.

Kansas City's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #1 in the league with 417 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #1-best in football with 327 yards per game. Perhaps because the defense has to take their pass game so seriously, the Chiefs have also managed to rush for 4.61 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #10 in the league in pass protection. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 9.3% of the time against the Chiefs in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Kansas City's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Chiefs have ranked #20 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 239 yards per game through the air against them (#26 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 with 4.46 yards per carry. Kansas City has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 69.4% completion rate (#10-lowest). Kansas City has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up a 91.2% completion rate (#1-highest).

Philadelphia's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #7 in football at 4.77 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Philadelphia's line ranks #4-best in the league in run blocking. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Philadelphia's 7.66 yards per target puts them #5 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Eagles check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 206 yards per game against Philadelphia this year (#9 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 against them with 4.67 yards per ground attempt. This Eagles defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 61.8% of their passes (#3-lowest in the league). A strong argument could be made that their worst position group is their safeties, who rank just #31 in the league in coverage.

Kansas City Chiefs Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Isiah Pacheco to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (51.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.9% in games he has played).

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has compiled far fewer air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).

• The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.

Philadelphia Eagles Insights

• The Sharp Model projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

• The Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackles grade out as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to pass rush.

• The Philadelphia Eagles have used play action on 33.8% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

• The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games (+7.65 Units / 11% ROI)

• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)

• DeVonta Smith has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 59% ROI)