Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Matchup Preview - November 20th, 2022

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Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs faceoff against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs enter the game as a big favorite (-240) despite being on the road. Kansas City is currently favored by -5.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 52.5.

Kansas City's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #1 in the league with 434 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #1-best in football with 353 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #8 in the league in pass protection. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 9.3% of the time against the Chiefs in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Kansas City's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Chiefs have ranked #21 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 277 yards per game through the air against them (#28 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 with 4.66 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their defensive tackles, which rank #5 in the league in terms of getting to the passer. Kansas City has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 48 yards per game (#1-worst).

Los Angeles's primary disadvantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a monstrous 5.82 yards per attempt on the ground this year, sliding them into the #1 spot among the league's worst. When teams struggle defending the run, they often bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage. The Chargers have elected not to do much of this, however, stacking the box the #10-least of any team in football -- just 13.8% of the time. Chargers defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #2-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Chargers check in at #11 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 274 yards per game (#7 in football). Their run game has ranked #26 with 3.96 yards per attempt on the ground.

Kansas City Chiefs Insights

  • The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.

  • Patrick Mahomes has passed for substantially more yards per game (353.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

  • The Sharp Model projects Patrick Mahomes to pass for 2.31 TDs in this week's game, on average: the most of all QBs.

Los Angeles Chargers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Justin Herbert to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (11.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).

  • Gerald Everett has posted quite a few more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (22.0 per game).

  • The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 63% ROI)

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)

  • Keenan Allen has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.40 Units / 40% ROI)