Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022


Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) will battle the Arizona Cardinals (0-0). Oddsmakers peg the Chiefs as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 68%, leaving the Cardinals with a 32% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Chiefs -6.0 with a Game Total of 53.5.

Kansas City's offense, which averages 461 yards per game and is ranked #1 in the league, has been their strength. Their passing attack has been the driver of their offensive success, ranking #1 in football with 375 yards per game. At #2 in the league, the offensive line has provided great pass protection, leading to their strong air game. The Chiefs have seen a stacked box an incredible 9.3% of the time this year, as teams have had to focus on stopping their run game. This has opened up more chances for Kansas City's passing offense, which is crucial for modern offenses. The Chiefs are currently ranked #28 in the league in total defensive yards allowed per game. Ranked #30 in football, they've given up 260 passing yards per game. Opposing ball-carriers have added 4.78 yards per carry to that total (#26 in the league). Their strongest positional unit against pass receivers has been their cornerbacks, ranking #7 in football. Kansas City has been at their worst against running backs, allowing 50 yards per game (#2-worst in football).

Ranking #9 in the NFL and with only 322 yards allowed per game, Arizona's main strength has been their defense. At 208 receiving yards allowed per game, #6-least in the league, they're controlling their opponent's aerial game. At just 2.44 seconds after the snap, good for #10-quickest in the league, their pass rushers are applying pressure to the opposing QB early and often. The Arizona Cardinals have excelled at limiting opposing tight ends, who are averaging just a 63.3% completion rate against them (#2-best). Ranked #10 in the league in coverage, Arizona's safeties have led the way. Ranked #3 in the league in getting to the passer, Arizona's linebackers have led the way. In terms of total offensive yards per game, the Cardinals are ranked #12 in the league. Ranked #11 in the league, they've averaged 270 yards through the air. They've carried the ball for 4.45 yards per attempt (#10 in football).

Kansas City Chiefs Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • Travis Kelce has totaled a monstrous 61.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among tight ends.

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Arizona Cardinals Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Kyler Murray to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (25.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (14.7% in games he has played).

  • The Arizona Cardinals linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season with their pass rush.

  • THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to accrue 0.34 receiving touchdowns in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among TEs.

Betting Trends

  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 55% ROI)

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 12 of their last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 28% ROI)

  • Zach Ertz has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)