Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Football Team Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) will battle the Washington Commanders (0-0). Oddsmakers peg the Commanders as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 55%, leaving the Jaguars with a 45% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Commanders -2.5 with a Game Total of 44.0.

Ranking all the way down at #23 in the NFL with a massive 363 yards allowed per game, Washington's biggest struggles have been with their defense. What ails them the most? Opposing QBs have been able to do whatever they want to the Commanders pass defense, gaining 257 yards per game, the league's #4-most. The Commanders have struggled the most at limiting opposing wide receivers, who are averaging a whopping 172 yards per game against them (#3-worst). Washington's linebackers have struggled the most in terms of coverage, ranking just #31 against opposing route-runners. Washington's defensive ends have bogged down their pass rush, ranking as only the #29-best unit in terms of getting to the opposing QB. In terms of total offensive yards per game, the Commanders are ranked #25 in the league. Ranked #27 in the league, they've averaged 213 yards through the air. They've carried the ball for 4.02 yards per attempt (#24 in football).

Jacksonville's offense, which only averages 285 yards per game and is ranked #28 in the league, has been their biggest weakness. Their passing attack has been their biggest offensive shortcoming, ranking 7-worst in football with just 214 yards per game. The Jaguars are currently ranked #20 in the league in total defensive yards allowed per game. Ranked #15 in football, they've given up 230 passing yards per game. Opposing ball-carriers have added 4.61 yards per carry to that total (#21 in the league). Jacksonville has been at their best against running backs, holding them to just 29 yards per game (#4-best in football). Jacksonville has been at their worst against wide receivers, allowing a completion rate of 75.7% of their targets (#1-highest in football).

Jacksonville Jaguars Insights

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

  • Jamycal Hasty has notched a colossal 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among running backs.

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Washington Football Team Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Carson Wentz to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (15.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.8% in games he has played).

  • The Washington Commanders defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season with their pass rush.

  • THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to rush for 0.56 TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among RBs.

Betting Trends

  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 42% ROI)

  • Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 80% ROI)