Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) will battle the Los Angeles Chargers (1-1). Oddsmakers peg the Chargers as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 63%, leaving the Jaguars with a 37% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Chargers -3.5 with a Game Total of 42.5.

Los Angeles's primary disadvantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a monstrous 4.91 yards per attempt on the ground this year, sliding them into the #4 spot among the league's worst. When teams struggle defending the run, they often bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage. The Chargers have elected not to do much of this, however, stacking the box the #10-least of any team in football -- just 13.8% of the time. Chargers defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #6-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Chargers check in at #8 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 288 yards per game (#8 in football). Their run game has ranked #13 with 4.33 yards per attempt on the ground.

Jacksonville's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #27 in the league with a mere 293 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #9-worst in football with 219 yards per game. In terms of their defense, the Jaguars have ranked #21 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 233 yards per game through the air against them (#15 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #17 with 4.53 yards per carry. Jacksonville has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 76.3% completion rate (#6-lowest). Jacksonville has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 73.8% completion rate (#1-highest).

Jacksonville Jaguars Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Jaguars to call the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have risked going for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Los Angeles Chargers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.5% pass rate.

  • Justin Herbert's throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.0% to 70.5%.

  • The Sharp Model projects Austin Ekeler to notch 0.21 receiving touchdowns in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.95 Units / 14% ROI)

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)

  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.85 Units / 50% ROI)