Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022


The Jacksonville Jaguars come in as 9.5 point road underdog as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to play the Kansas City Chiefs. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 1 in 2019. That game resulted in a home win for the Chiefs with a final score of 40-26.

Kansas City's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #1 in the NFL at 435 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Chiefs 354 yards per game through the air ranks #1-best in football this year. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 9.3% of the time against the Chiefs in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Kansas City. When it comes to their defense, the Chiefs check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 276 yards per game against Kansas City this year (#27 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #17 against them with 4.71 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their defensive tackles, who rank #6 in the league in getting pressure on the quarterback. Kansas City's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 49 yards per game (#2-worst in the league).

Jacksonville's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #8 in the league with 361 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their rushing attack, which is #1-best in football with 5.35 yards per carry. This is all the more impressive because they've faced a stacked box the #3-most of any team in the league at 11.1%. Even with an extra tackler near the line of scrimmage, the Jaguars have still thrived on the ground. In terms of their defense, the Jaguars have ranked #15 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 250 yards per game through the air against them (#23 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #4 with 4.14 yards per carry. Jacksonville has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 63.1% completion rate (#7-lowest). Jacksonville has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 40 yards per game (#7-worst).

Jacksonville Jaguars Insights

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

  • The Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackles profile as the 6th-best group of DTs in the league this year with their pass rush.

  • The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.

Kansas City Chiefs Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (17.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.1% in games he has played).

  • Patrick Mahomes has passed for quite a few more yards per game (354.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+5.60 Units / 10% ROI)

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)

  • Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 91% ROI)