Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022

Sunday the Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) will battle the New England Patriots (4-4). Oddsmakers peg the Patriots as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 66%, leaving the Colts with a 34% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Patriots -4.5 with a Game Total of 40.0.

New England's primary disadvantage this season has been their pass offense, which has ranked #23 in football with a low 228 yards per game through the air. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 27.7% of the time. When it comes to their defense, the Patriots check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 233 yards per game against New England this year (#15 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #19 against them with 4.76 yards per ground attempt. This Patriots defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 62.6% of their passes (#5-lowest in the league). New England's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 7.26 yards per target (#3-worst in the league).

Indianapolis's biggest weakness has been their rushing offense, checking in at #27 in the league with a mere 3.76 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Indianapolis's o-line ranks #1-worst in this regard. In terms of their defense, the Colts have ranked #12 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 216 yards per game through the air against them (#10 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #8 with 4.37 yards per carry. Indianapolis has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 126 yards per game (#2-best). Indianapolis has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 6.69 yards per target (#7-worst).

Indianapolis Colts Insights

• The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling with backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

• Michael Pittman has compiled far fewer air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).

• The Indianapolis Colts have used play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

New England Patriots Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (69.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.1% in games he has played).

• The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the best unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

• The Sharp Model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 0.19 receiving touchdowns this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Betting Trends

• The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)

• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 64% ROI)

• Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.95 Units / 26% ROI)