Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1) will battle the Las Vegas Raiders (2-6). Oddsmakers peg the Raiders as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 66%, leaving the Colts with a 34% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Raiders -4.0 with a Game Total of 41.5.

Indianapolis's biggest weakness has been their rushing offense, checking in at #29 in the league with a mere 3.6 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Indianapolis's o-line ranks #2-worst in this regard. This represents a particular disadvantage for Indianapolis given that the Raiders have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 4.37 yards per carry (#9-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Colts have ranked #9 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 209 yards per game through the air against them (#6 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #6 with 4.19 yards per carry. Indianapolis has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 120 yards per game (#2-best). Indianapolis has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 79% completion rate (#7-highest).

Las Vegas's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #3 in football at 5.27 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Las Vegas's line ranks #2-best in the league in run blocking. When it comes to their defense, the Raiders check in at #28 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 278 yards per game against Las Vegas this year (#28 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.37 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their defensive ends, who rank #4 in the league when it comes to run-stopping. Las Vegas's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 51 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).

Indianapolis Colts Insights

  • The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.

  • Michael Pittman has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (63.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Jonathan Taylor to rush for 0.54 TDs in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among RBs.

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • The Indianapolis Colts linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in football this year in regard to run defense.

  • The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.20 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)

  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.80 Units / 72% ROI)

  • Parris Campbell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)