Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022
Matt Ryan and the Indianapolis Colts faceoff against Davis Mills and the Houston Texans. The Colts enter the game as a huge favorite (-340) despite being on the road. Indianapolis is currently favored by -7.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 45.5.
Ranking #31 in the NFL and with only 274 yards per game, Houston's main weakness has been their offense. With only 3.05 yards per carry, just #32-best in football this year, their inept running game has been the main source of that weakness. The offensive line is a critical component of any team's ground game. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for him, but even the worst running back can find success if he's given enough room. Unsurprisingly, Houston's offensive line is ranked #1-worst by that metric. Houston has only averaged 6.43 yards per target, bottom 10 in football, owing largely to a lack of opportunities created by their failures on the ground. In terms of total defensive yards allowed per game, the Texans are ranked #31 in the league. Their passing defense has allowed 244 yards per game, good for #24-place. They've allowed opposing ball-carriers to gain 4.82 yards per attempt (#29 in football). The Texans have been at their best against running backs, holding them to just 29 yards per game (#4-best in football). Houston has been at their worst against tight ends, giving up 9.1 yards per target (#1-worst in football).
Indianapolis's greatest strength has been their rushing offense, which ranks #1 in the league with 5.54 yards per game. The offensive line is a critical component of any team's ground game. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for him, but even the worst running back can find success if he's given enough room. Indianapolis's offensive line is ranked #8 by that metric. Given that the Texans have struggled so much to stop the run this year (#4-worst in the league and 4.82 yards per carry), this may be a deciding factor for Indianapolis. The Colts are currently ranked #16 in the league in total defensive yards allowed per game. Ranked #19 in football, they've given up 236 passing yards per game. Opposing ball-carriers have added 4.53 yards per carry to that total (#17 in the league). Indianapolis has been at their best against wide receivers, holding them to just 7.45 yards per target (#6-best in football). Indianapolis has been at their worst against tight ends, allowing 63 yards per game (#1-worst in football).
Indianapolis Colts Insights
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 121.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Indianapolis Colts have used play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
Houston Texans Insights
The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Davis Mills has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 6.53 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 19th percentile.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to accumulate 0.41 receiving TDs this week, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Betting Trends
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 39% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 63% ROI)
Nico Collins has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 80% ROI)