Houston Texans vs New York Giants Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022

Editor

The Houston Texans come in as 5.0 point road underdog as they travel to MetLife Stadium to play the New York Giants. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 3 in 2018. That game resulted in a home win for the Giants with a final score of 27-22.

New York's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #29 in football with a low 289 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #29 in the league with just 183 yards per game. Partially to blame is New York's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #24 in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for New York given that the Texans pass defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 8.1 yards per target (good for #22-best in football). When it comes to their defense, the Giants check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 221 yards per game against New York this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #29 against them with 5.25 yards per ground attempt. This Giants defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 59.2% of their passes (#1-lowest in the league). New York's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 8.27 yards per target (#10-worst in the league).

Houston's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #30 in the league while allowing 408 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #2-most yards per carry: 5.66. The Texans linebackers have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #1-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Texans have ranked #27 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 205 yards per game (#26 in football). On the ground they've ranked #18 with 4.4 yards per carry.

Houston Texans Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Texans to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • The New York Giants defensive tackles rank as the best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

  • The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

New York Giants Insights

  • The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

  • Daniel Jones has passed for many fewer yards per game (182.0) this season than he did last season (218.0).

  • The Sharp Model projects Saquon Barkley to run for 0.70 touchdowns in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among running backs.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Giants have scored last in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 48% ROI)

  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 59% ROI)

  • Daniel Jones has hit the Passing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)