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Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022


Kyle Allen and the Houston Texans faceoff against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins enter the game as a huge favorite (-875) as the home team. Miami is currently favored by -14.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 47.0.

Miami's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #2 in the NFL at 384 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Dolphins 298 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 12.1% of the time against the Dolphins in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Miami. When it comes to their defense, the Dolphins check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 243 yards per game against Miami this year (#23 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 against them with 4.69 yards per ground attempt. This Dolphins defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 63.8% of their passes (#8-lowest in the league). Miami's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 7.13 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).

Houston's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #29 in the league while allowing 385 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #4-most yards per carry: 5.29. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #7-worst in yards per target (8.28). The Texans linebackers have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #1-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Texans have ranked #28 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 209 yards per game (#26 in football). On the ground they've ranked #20 with 4.3 yards per carry.

Houston Texans Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Teagan Quitoriano to be much less involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (5.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).

  • Brandin Cooks has compiled far fewer air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).

  • The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.47 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

Miami Dolphins Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.15 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the 9th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

  • The Miami Dolphins have utilized play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Miami Dolphins have scored last in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 60% ROI)

  • The Houston Texans have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)


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