Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022


Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers faceoff against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers enter the game as a slight favorite (-120) as the home team. Tampa Bay is currently favored by -1.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 42.0.

Tampa Bay's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #2 in the NFL at 438 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Buccaneers 343 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 4.62 yards per carry. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #9 in the league in pass protection. When it comes to their defense, the Buccaneers check in at #8 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 236 yards per game against Tampa Bay this year (#19 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 against them with 4.33 yards per ground attempt. This Buccaneers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 6.94 yards per target (#2-best in the league). Tampa Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 77.3% of their passes (#4-highest in the league).

Green Bay's biggest weakness has been their run defense, ranking #31 in the league while allowing 4.95 yards per game on the ground. Perhaps part of their struggle has been because they haven't stacked the box the way teams often do to try and plug up their run game issues. They've brought up a safety or extra defender just 8.8% of the time this year, #2-least of any team in football. The Packers defensive ends have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #8-worst in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular disadvantage for Green Bay given that the Buccaneers have excelled in the run game this year, accumulating 4.62 yards per carry (#5-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Packers have ranked #7 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 287 yards per game (#9 in football). On the ground they've ranked #6 with 4.61 yards per carry.

Green Bay Packers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Aaron Jones's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 9.31 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.78 rate last year.

  • The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.87 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

  • Leonard Fournette has accumulated a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Betting Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 74% ROI)

  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)

  • Mike Evans has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)