Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Matchup Preview - December 25th, 2022
The Green Bay Packers come in as 3.5 point road underdog as they travel to Hard Rock Stadium to play the Miami Dolphins. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 10 in 2018. That game resulted in a road win for the Packers with a final score of 31-12.
Miami's chief advantage has been their pass offense, which ranks #7 in the NFL at 274 yards per game through the air. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 12.1% of the time against the Dolphins in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Miami. When it comes to their defense, the Dolphins check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 260 yards per game against Miami this year (#26 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #16 against them with 4.59 yards per ground attempt. This Dolphins defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 7.77 yards per target (#9-best in the league). Miami's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 46 yards per game (#2-worst in the league).
Green Bay's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #2 in the league while allowing just 207 yards per game this season. The Packers have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 136 yards per game (#6-best). Green Bay's best position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank #4 in the league in locking down route-runners. Green Bay's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #10-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Packers have ranked #12 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 245 yards per game (#11 in football). On the ground they've ranked #12 with 4.61 yards per carry.
Green Bay Packers Insights
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Aaron Rodgers's throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.8% to 66.3%.
The Sharp Model projects Aaron Jones to accumulate 0.21 receiving TDs in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Miami Dolphins Insights
The Sharp Model projects Tua Tagovailoa to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (10.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.8% in games he has played).
Tyreek Hill has notched significantly more air yards this year (135.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.71 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
Betting Trends
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 53% ROI)
The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 30% ROI)
Aaron Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.70 Units / 54% ROI)