Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers faceoff against Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. The Packers enter the game as a favorite (-200) despite being on the road. Green Bay is currently favored by -4.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 49.5.
Detroit's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 430 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #2 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #3-most yards per carry: 5.63. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #32 spot in terms of yards per target (9.17). Lions safeties are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #4-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Detroit given that the Packers ground game has been so good this year, rushing for 4.79 yards per carry (#9-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Lions check in at #4 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 264 yards per game (#8 in football). Their run game has ranked #5 with 5.03 yards per attempt on the ground.
Green Bay's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #2 in the league while allowing just 195 yards per game this season. The Packers have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 34 yards per game (#5-best). Green Bay's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #5 in the league in locking down route-runners. Green Bay's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #2-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Packers have ranked #9 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 248 yards per game (#14 in football). On the ground they've ranked #9 with 4.79 yards per carry.
Green Bay Packers Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 6.99 yards-per-target compared to a 8.15 figure last year.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.60 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.
Detroit Lions Insights
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted far fewer air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Betting Trends
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+5.75 Units / 66% ROI)
The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
Josh Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 57% ROI)