Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022

Editor

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers faceoff against Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. The Packers enter the game as a favorite (-200) despite being on the road. Green Bay is currently favored by -4.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 49.5.

Detroit's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 430 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #2 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #3-most yards per carry: 5.63. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #32 spot in terms of yards per target (9.17). Lions safeties are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #4-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Detroit given that the Packers ground game has been so good this year, rushing for 4.79 yards per carry (#9-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Lions check in at #4 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 264 yards per game (#8 in football). Their run game has ranked #5 with 5.03 yards per attempt on the ground.

Green Bay's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #2 in the league while allowing just 195 yards per game this season. The Packers have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 34 yards per game (#5-best). Green Bay's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #5 in the league in locking down route-runners. Green Bay's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #2-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Packers have ranked #9 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 248 yards per game (#14 in football). On the ground they've ranked #9 with 4.79 yards per carry.

Green Bay Packers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Aaron Rodgers's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 6.99 yards-per-target compared to a 8.15 figure last year.

  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.60 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.

Detroit Lions Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted far fewer air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).

  • The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+5.75 Units / 66% ROI)

  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)

  • Josh Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 57% ROI)