Geek's Super Bowl LVII Top Props Bets To Target

Super Bowl LVII is around the corner and I've been in the lab all week diving into the numbers to bring you my top prop plays for the big game.

Before getting into the plays themselves I wanted to give a brief overview of how I see this game playing out. Currently, the Eagles are razor-thin 1.5-point favorites with the game total set at 50.5. Both teams sport elite offenses capable of scoring fast on big plays. Chiefs' offense ranked #1 in the league averaging 417 yards per game primarily achieved via the pass. Chiefs' Offensive line ranked 10th in the league in pass protection which should help against an aggressive Eagles front 7. Both teams' secondaries are well above average but neither has anything resembling a "shut down" defense. Defensively the Eagle's front 7 has been solid generating pressure on opposing QBs but the combination of the Chiefs' elite offensive line alongside Mahomes' ankle healing up should give him enough mobility to escape that pass rush and extend plays and drives. All of this should lead to a high-scoring affair where neither team gets a chance to let their foot off the gas.

With that as the backdrop let's get into these props! All of these markets are currently available on Draftkings sportsbook. Using the Sharp App Player Props Tool we will also identify the best book to bet these prop plays on.

Jalen Hurts over 49.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Fanduel) - 3 Star Play.

Secondary - Hurts over 10.5 Carries +105 (BetMGM) 2 Star Play

This prop is set at 50.5 on all of the other books so using Fanduel is preferable but I'd go to 50.5 if necessary. My model has Hurts projected to rush for 67 yards in this one and I wouldn't be shocked if he exceeded that. Hurts has averaged 9.6 rushing attempts per game this year. Most of those games were Eagles blowout wins where they took their foot off the gas a bit in the 2nd half. This game should be close and high scoring. The secondary play - over 10.5 carries, is interesting because there is a scenario where the Eagles get the football with a lead late in the 4th Quarter needing to run out the clock. If Hurts kneels to kill the clock for a couple of plays at the end of the game, those will count as carries. Potential for a backdoor cover there. Regardless Hurts has averaged over 9 carries per game on the season so hitting 10.5 in a clear high-scoring affair shouldn't be too difficult.

Justin Watson under 1.5 receptions -120 (BetMGM) 2 Star Play

Looking at the SHARP App Props Comparison Tool, Caesars has this underpriced at -163 with the consensus sitting at -150. We are getting a bargain at BetMGM -120 but the DraftKings -130 number is fine to hit as well if necessary. Watson has only 2 games this season with 2 receptions. The rest have been 1's or 0's. Teams tend to lean on their studs in the Playoffs. I considered the yardage under here as well but Watson's downfield role means that even one reception has a decent chance to go for over 17 yards. I'll stick with the receptions under where Watson has only surpassed 1.5 in 12% of games this season.

Devonta Smith Over 61.5 Yards -120 (Fanduel) 3 Star Play

My model projects Smith for over 70 receiving yards in this game. Smith had seen 10, 8, 13, and 12 targets over the past 4 games with the exception being the blowout vs the 49ers. His volume has been massive over the past month and I would expect more of the same.

Travis Kelce Over 75.5 Receiving Yards -125 (PointsBet) 2 Star Play

Kelce to score a TD -113 (Caesars) 1.5 Star Play

Eagles have an elite secondary allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. That should push extra targets over to the TE position. In addition, teams tend to lean heavily on their studs in big games. It all points to a monster game from Kelce.

Miles Sanders Total Carries Under 13.5 -120 (DraftKings) 1 Star Play

Over the past 8 games Sanders has surpassed 13.5 carries 3 times. He gets there 40% of the time. There is slight value in the under as our model is projecting 11.3 carries.