Dolphins vs Jets Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - November 24th, 2023
Friday the Miami Dolphins (7-3) will battle the New York Jets (4-6). Oddsmakers peg the Dolphins as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 80%, leaving the Jets with a 20% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Dolphins -9.5 with a Game Total of 40.0.
New York's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 324 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #4-least yards per game: 190. The New York Jets pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing wide receivers, who have managed just 101 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). New York's best coverage unit has been their cornerbacks, which grade out as the #1 unit in the NFL in this regard. New York's pass rush has been led by their linebackers who, ranking as the #1 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. This presents a decided advantage for New York given that the Dolphins haven't had much success throwing the ball this year, managing a mere 8.7 yards per target (good for #31-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Jets check in at #30 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 198 yards per game (#28 in football). Their run game has ranked #15 with 3.98 yards per attempt on the ground.
Miami's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #1 in the league with 441 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #1-best in football with 304 yards per game. Perhaps because the defense has to take their pass game so seriously, the Dolphins have also managed to rush for 6.37 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10. In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #18 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 248 yards per game through the air against them (#15 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #23 with 4.08 yards per carry. Miami pass defense has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 23 yards per game (#3-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 7.16 yards per target (#2-worst).
Dolphins Insights
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the predictive model to call just 64.0 total plays in this game: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.
After averaging 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has seen a big decrease this season, now pacing 119.0 per game.
The model projects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 0.64 receiving touchdowns in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile amongwhen it comes to wideouts.
Jets Insights
The Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tim Boyle in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Dolphins safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing RBs: a colossal 9.67 YAC.
Betting Trends
Garrett Wilson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.90 Units / 48% ROI)