Detroit Lions vs New York Giants Matchup Preview - November 20th, 2022
Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions faceoff against Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. The Giants enter the game as a favorite (-165) as the home team. New York is currently favored by -3.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 44.0.
New York's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #29 in football with a low 292 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #28 in the league with just 181 yards per game. Partially to blame is New York's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #25 in the NFL. When it comes to their defense, the Giants check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 234 yards per game against New York this year (#17 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #28 against them with 5.24 yards per ground attempt. This Giants defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 65.2% of their passes (#1-lowest in the league). New York's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 6.91 yards per target (#4-worst in the league).
Detroit's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 424 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #2-most yards per carry: 5.7. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #1-worst in yards per target (8.95). The Lions safeties have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #3-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Lions have ranked #7 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 246 yards per game (#10 in football). On the ground they've ranked #9 with 4.68 yards per carry.
Detroit Lions Insights
The Sharp Model projects Jared Goff to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (6.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.4% in games he has played).
Brock Wright's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 71.8% to 100.0%.
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
New York Giants Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Darius Slayton has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (46.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).
The Sharp Model projects Saquon Barkley to rush for 0.70 touchdowns in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.45 Units / 46% ROI)