Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Detroit Lions (2-6) will battle the Chicago Bears (3-6). Oddsmakers peg the Bears as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 59%, leaving the Lions with a 41% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bears -3.0 with a Game Total of 48.5.

Chicago's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 260 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 150 yards per game. When it comes to their defense, the Bears check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 210 yards per game against Chicago this year (#7 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #27 against them with 5.13 yards per ground attempt. This Bears defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 37 yards per game (#5-best in the league). Chicago's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.59 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).

Detroit's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #31 in the league while allowing 424 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #3-most yards per carry: 5.53. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #1-worst in yards per target (8.82). In terms of their offense, the Lions have ranked #7 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 248 yards per game (#10 in football). On the ground they've ranked #6 with 4.88 yards per carry.

Detroit Lions Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Jared Goff's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.2% to 63.0%.

  • The Chicago Bears pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.

Chicago Bears Insights

  • The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

  • Darnell Mooney has totaled far fewer air yards this year (70.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).

  • The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)

  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 29% ROI)

  • Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)