Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022

Editor

Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos faceoff against Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans. The Titans enter the game as a favorite (-135) as the home team. Tennessee is currently favored by -2.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 39.5.

Tennessee's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #30 in football with a low 282 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #31 in the league with just 157 yards per game. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 26.4% of the time. Partially to blame is Tennessee's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #32 in the NFL. When it comes to their defense, the Titans check in at #27 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 306 yards per game against Tennessee this year (#31 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #2 against them with 4.11 yards per ground attempt. This Titans defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 5.18 yards per target (#9-best in the league). Tennessee's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.89 yards per target (#1-worst in the league).

Denver's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #2 in the league while allowing just 316 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #2-least yards per game: 191. The Broncos have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 113 yards per game (#1-best). Denver's best position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank #1 in the league in locking down route-runners. Denver's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their linebackers, which check in as the #6-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Broncos have ranked #23 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 221 yards per game (#23 in football). On the ground they've ranked #27 with 3.78 yards per carry.

Denver Broncos Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Russell Wilson's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 56.9%.

  • The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.36 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.

Tennessee Titans Insights

  • Dontrell Hilliard has totaled far more air yards this year (6.0 per game) than he did last year (-4.0 per game).

  • The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)

  • The Denver Broncos have scored last in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.20 Units / 19% ROI)

  • Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)