Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022


The Denver Broncos come in as 2.5 point road underdog as they travel to Allegiant Stadium to play the Las Vegas Raiders. Their last head-to-head matchup was a low scoring affair. In Week 16 of 2021 the Raiders won at home beating the Broncos 17-13. The Broncos entered that game as a slight road favorite. They were favored by 1.0 points before covering the spread. The Game Total for that game was 41.5 and which the Under hit.

Las Vegas's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #9 in the NFL at 371 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Raiders 289 yards per game through the air ranks #7-best in football this year. When it comes to their defense, the Raiders check in at #9 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 216 yards per game against Las Vegas this year (#7 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #7 against them with 4.25 yards per ground attempt. This Raiders defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 125 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Las Vegas's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have caught 87.5% of their passes (#2-highest in the league).

Denver's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #6 in the league while allowing just 316 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #6-least yards per game: 212. The Broncos have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 60.8% completion rate (#3-lowest). Denver's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #5 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Broncos have ranked #20 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 224 yards per game (#22 in football). On the ground they've ranked #22 with 4.07 yards per carry.

Denver Broncos Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Broncos to run the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 5th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

  • The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • Derek Carr's passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 61.2%.

  • The Sharp Model projects Davante Adams to compile 0.53 receiving touchdowns this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among wideouts.

Betting Trends

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+2.90 Units / 16% ROI)

  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)

  • Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)