Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview - January 1st, 2023
The Denver Broncos come in as 12.5 point road underdog as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to play the Kansas City Chiefs. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 14 in 2022. That game resulted in a home win for the Chiefs with a final score of 34-28. Although the Chiefs recorded the win, they failed to cover the -8.5 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 44.0 and which the Over hit.
Kansas City's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #1 in the NFL at 425 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Chiefs 333 yards per game through the air ranks #1-best in football this year. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 4.61 yards per carry. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 9.3% of the time against the Chiefs in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Kansas City. When it comes to their defense, the Chiefs check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 257 yards per game against Kansas City this year (#26 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #12 against them with 4.46 yards per ground attempt. This Chiefs defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete just 68.9% of their passes (#8-lowest in the league). Kansas City's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have caught 90.4% of their passes (#1-highest in the league).
Denver's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #6 in the league while allowing just 333 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #5-least yards per game: 212. The Broncos have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 6.57 yards per target (#1-best). Denver's best position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank #2 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Broncos have ranked #23 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 220 yards per game (#24 in football). On the ground they've ranked #27 with 3.9 yards per carry.
Denver Broncos Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to play at the quickest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 25.41 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Russell Wilson's throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 58.3%.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.14 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
Kansas City Chiefs Insights
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Travis Kelce has posted quite a few more air yards this season (70.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game).
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Betting Trends
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 25% ROI)
Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)