Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022

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Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos faceoff against Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers. The Broncos enter the game as a slight favorite (-120) despite being on the road. Denver is currently favored by -1.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 36.5.

Carolina's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #31 in football with a low 269 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #30 in the league with just 177 yards per game. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 19.7% of the time. This presents a decided disadvantage for Carolina given that the Broncos pass defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 6.06 yards per target (good for #1-best in football). When it comes to their defense, the Panthers check in at #20 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 213 yards per game against Carolina this year (#16 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 against them with 4.75 yards per ground attempt. This Panthers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 34 yards per game (#5-best in the league). Carolina's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have caught 70.9% of their passes (#3-highest in the league).

Denver's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #2 in the league while allowing just 296 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #1-least yards per game: 181. The Broncos have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 104 yards per game (#1-best). Denver's best position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank #2 in the league in locking down route-runners. Denver's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their linebackers, which check in as the #7-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular advantage for Denver given that the Panthers have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 6.15 yards per target (#2-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Broncos have ranked #24 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 224 yards per game (#22 in football). On the ground they've ranked #30 with 3.66 yards per carry.

Denver Broncos Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Russell Wilson to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (13.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.7% in games he has played).

  • Russell Wilson's passing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 57.4%.

  • The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

Carolina Panthers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 29.22 seconds per play.

  • D.J. Moore has accrued far fewer air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects D'Onta Foreman to rush for 0.48 TDs in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.

Betting Trends

  • The Carolina Panthers have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)

  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)

  • Ian Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)