Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Preview - September 12th, 2022

Editor

The Seattle Seahawks come in as 6.5 point home underdog as they play the Denver Broncos at Lumen Field Monday. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 1 in 2018. That game resulted in a road win for the Broncos with a final score of 27-24.

Seattle's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 384 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #3 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #2-most yards per game (268) against the Seahawks. Opposing running backs have given the Seahawks the most trouble, posting 61 yards per game against this defense (#1-worst in football). Seattle's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their safeties, who rank just #29 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. Seattle's defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #3-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Seattle given that the Broncos air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 6.99 yards per target (#21-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Seahawks check in at #23 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 214 yards per game (#26 in football). Their run game has ranked #3 with 4.9 yards per attempt on the ground.

Denver's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #9 in the league while allowing just 322 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #7-least yards per game: 214. The Broncos have done the best job shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 71.3% completion rate (#1-lowest). Denver's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #6 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Broncos have ranked #20 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 222 yards per game (#22 in football). On the ground they've ranked #13 with 4.36 yards per carry.

Denver Broncos Insights

  • The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

  • The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 6th-best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

  • The Denver Broncos pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.39 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the league.

Seattle Seahawks Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (12.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.2% in games he has played).

  • Geno Smith has been among the most on-target QBs in football since the start of last season with an impressive 68.8% Completion%, grading out in the 84th percentile.

  • The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Betting Trends

  • The Seattle Seahawks have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+4.10 Units / 33% ROI)

  • Russell Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 48% ROI)