Sharp App: Sports Betting

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Matchup Preview - January 8th, 2023

Sunday the Dallas Cowboys (12-4) will battle the Washington Commanders (7-8-1). Oddsmakers peg the Cowboys as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 74%, leaving the Commanders with a 26% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Cowboys -7.5 with a Game Total of 40.5.

Washington's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #30 in football with a low 3.81 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Washington, their line ranks #9-worst in the league in run blocking. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Washington has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.57 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Commanders check in at #4 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 214 yards per game against Washington this year (#5 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #18 against them with 4.6 yards per ground attempt. This Commanders defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 26 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Washington's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 8.99 yards per target (#7-worst in the league).

Dallas's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #10 in the league while allowing just 4.43 yards per carry this season. This represents a particular advantage for Dallas given that the Commanders have struggled so much with their run game this year, managing just 3.81 yards per carry (#3-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Cowboys have ranked #7 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 236 yards per game (#16 in football). On the ground they've ranked #11 with 4.55 yards per carry.

Dallas Cowboys Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Dak Prescott to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (13.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.9% in games he has played).

  • Dak Prescott has thrown for a lot fewer yards per game (250.0) this year than he did last year (288.0).

  • The Dallas Cowboys have gone no-huddle on 12.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Washington Commanders Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Terry McLaurin has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (89.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Jonathan Williams to accumulate 0.10 receiving touchdowns in this contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.

Betting Trends

  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 19% ROI)

  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)

  • Tony Pollard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)