Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - October 16th, 2022

Sunday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys (4-1) and Philadelphia Eagles (5-0). Oddsmakers peg the Eagles as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 71%, leaving the Cowboys with a 29% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Eagles -6.5 with a Game Total of 42.0.

Philadelphia's primary disadvantage this season has been their pass offense, which has ranked #25 in football with a low 76 yards per game through the air. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 18.9% of the time. This presents a decided disadvantage for Philadelphia given that the Cowboys pass defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 5.98 yards per target (good for #2-best in football). When it comes to their defense, the Eagles check in at #8 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 227 yards per game against Philadelphia this year (#14 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #22 against them with 4.83 yards per ground attempt. This Eagles defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 6.45 yards per target (#2-best in the league).

Dallas's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #6 in the league while allowing just 320 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #5-least yards per game: 206. They've made it a habit of getting to the quarterback quickly, averaging just 2.39 seconds after the snap before applying pressure -- #5-quickest in the league. The Cowboys have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 3.94 yards per target (#1-best). Dallas's best position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank #3 in the league in locking down route-runners. Dallas's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their linebackers, which check in as the #4-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Cowboys have ranked #15 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 89 yards per game (#21 in football). On the ground they've ranked #18 with 4.3 yards per carry.

Dallas Cowboys Insights

• The Sharp Model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

• CeeDee Lamb has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (99.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).

Philadelphia Eagles Insights

• The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

• The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

• The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.

Betting Trends

• The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 38% ROI)

• The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 6 away games (+6.70 Units / 55% ROI)

• James Washington has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)