Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Matchup Preview - September 26th, 2022
Monday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys (1-1) and New York Giants (2-0). Oddsmakers peg the Giants as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 51%, leaving the Cowboys with a 49% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Giants -1.0 with a Game Total of 39.0.
Dallas's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #5 in the league with 408 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #6-best in football with 301 yards per game. Perhaps because the defense has to take their pass game so seriously, the Cowboys have also managed to rush for 4.58 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #1 in the league in pass protection. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 13.3% of the time against the Cowboys in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Dallas's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Cowboys have ranked #17 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 237 yards per game through the air against them (#21 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 with 4.46 yards per carry. Dallas has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 58.3% completion rate (#1-lowest). Dallas has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 162 yards per game (#6-worst).
New York's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #31 in football with a low 277 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 201 yards per game. And if the opposing defense doesn't need to go all out to stop the passing game, they can focus more on stopping the run, which has led New York managing just 3.82 yards per carry -- bottom 10 in the league. Partially to blame is New York's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #32 in the NFL. When it comes to their defense, the Giants check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 234 yards per game against New York this year (#16 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #24 against them with 4.71 yards per ground attempt. This Giants defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 6.79 yards per target (#7-best in the league). New York's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 6.82 yards per target (#7-worst in the league).
Dallas Cowboys Insights
The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling with backup QB Cooper Rush in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Michael Gallup has put up a whopping 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wide receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone no-huddle on 12.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
New York Giants Insights
The Sharp Model projects Daniel Jones to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (21.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.5% in games he has played).
The New York Giants cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Sharp Model projects Saquon Barkley to rush for 0.51 touchdowns in this game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.30 Units / 55% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.80 Units / 33% ROI)
James Washington has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)