Sharp App: Sports Betting

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams Matchup Preview - October 9th, 2022

Sunday the Dallas Cowboys (3-1) will battle the Los Angeles Rams (2-2). Oddsmakers peg the Rams as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 67%, leaving the Cowboys with a 33% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Rams -5.0 with a Game Total of 42.0.

Los Angeles's primary advantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a scant 3.98 yards per attempt on the ground -- #3-best in the NFL. Los Angeles gets full marks because they haven't even sold out to stop the run the way many teams do. They've played with the standard seven men in the box 5.9% of the time this year. While many teams bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the Rams have employed this tactic the #1-least in football. This Rams run defense has been aided by their safeties, who grade out as the #1-best unit in the NFL. This presents a decided advantage for Los Angeles given that the Cowboys have had so little success running the ball this year, managing a mere 3.92 yards per carry (#9-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Rams check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 77 yards per game (#10 in football). Their run game has ranked #27 with 3.69 yards per attempt on the ground.

Dallas's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #6 in the league while allowing just 325 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #5-least yards per game: 191. They've made it a habit of getting to the quarterback quickly, averaging just 2.39 seconds after the snap before applying pressure -- #5-quickest in the league. The Cowboys have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 3.91 yards per target (#3-best). Dallas's best position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank #6 in the league in locking down route-runners. Dallas's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their linebackers, which check in as the #1-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Cowboys have ranked #9 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 87 yards per game (#7 in football). On the ground they've ranked #24 with 3.92 yards per carry.

Dallas Cowboys Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Cooper Rush to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (7.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.0% in games he has played).

  • The Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the best unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

  • The Sharp Model projects Dalton Schultz to compile 0.17 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.

Los Angeles Rams Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Matthew Stafford's passing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 70.4%.

  • The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.85 Units / 64% ROI)

  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 69% ROI)

  • Cooper Kupp has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)