Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022
Editor
Sunday the Dallas Cowboys (6-2) will battle the Green Bay Packers (3-6). Oddsmakers peg the Cowboys as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 64%, leaving the Packers with a 36% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Cowboys -3.5 with a Game Total of 44.5.
Green Bay's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 330 yards per game -- #10-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 187. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 32 yards per game against them (#31-least in football). Green Bay's best coverage unit has been their cornerbacks, which grade out as the #5 unit in the NFL in this regard. Green Bay's pass rush has been led by their defensive tackles who, ranking as the #2 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Packers check in at #9 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 251 yards per game (#9 in football). Their run game has ranked #14 with 4.6 yards per attempt on the ground.
Dallas's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #4 in the league while allowing just 200 yards per game this season. They've made it a habit of getting to the quarterback quickly, averaging just 2.39 seconds after the snap before applying pressure -- #5-quickest in the league. The Cowboys have done the best job shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 26 yards per game (#3-best). Dallas's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #2 in the league in locking down route-runners. Dallas's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their linebackers, which check in as the #5-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Cowboys have ranked #21 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 197 yards per game (#27 in football). On the ground they've ranked #7 with 4.84 yards per carry.
Dallas Cowboys Insights
The Green Bay Packers defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best DT corps in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the league.
Green Bay Packers Insights
The Sharp Model projects Aaron Rodgers to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (6.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.5% in games he has played).
Aaron Rodgers's passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.6% to 66.3%.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Betting Trends
The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 35% ROI)