Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Dallas Cowboys (6-2) will battle the Green Bay Packers (3-6). Oddsmakers peg the Cowboys as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 64%, leaving the Packers with a 36% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Cowboys -3.5 with a Game Total of 44.5.

Green Bay's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 330 yards per game -- #10-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 187. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 32 yards per game against them (#31-least in football). Green Bay's best coverage unit has been their cornerbacks, which grade out as the #5 unit in the NFL in this regard. Green Bay's pass rush has been led by their defensive tackles who, ranking as the #2 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Packers check in at #9 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 251 yards per game (#9 in football). Their run game has ranked #14 with 4.6 yards per attempt on the ground.

Dallas's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #4 in the league while allowing just 200 yards per game this season. They've made it a habit of getting to the quarterback quickly, averaging just 2.39 seconds after the snap before applying pressure -- #5-quickest in the league. The Cowboys have done the best job shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 26 yards per game (#3-best). Dallas's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #2 in the league in locking down route-runners. Dallas's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their linebackers, which check in as the #5-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Cowboys have ranked #21 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 197 yards per game (#27 in football). On the ground they've ranked #7 with 4.84 yards per carry.

Dallas Cowboys Insights

  • The Green Bay Packers defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best DT corps in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

  • The Green Bay Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the league.

Green Bay Packers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Aaron Rodgers to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (6.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.5% in games he has played).

  • Aaron Rodgers's passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.6% to 66.3%.

  • The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Betting Trends

  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)

  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI)

  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 35% ROI)