Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022


Jacoby Brissett and the Cleveland Browns faceoff against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins enter the game as a favorite (-170) as the home team. Miami is currently favored by -3.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 49.5.

Cleveland's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #2 in the league with 385 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their rushing attack, which is #4-best in football with 5.1 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Cleveland's o-line ranks #3-best in this regard. With how successful they've been on the ground, this has opened up opportunities through the air as well; Cleveland has averaged 7.51 yards per target, which ranks them #9 in football. In terms of their defense, the Browns have ranked #19 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 244 yards per game through the air against them (#20 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #24 with 5.06 yards per carry. Cleveland has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 60.3% completion rate (#2-lowest). Cleveland has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 9.17 yards per target (#2-worst).

Miami's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #4 in the NFL at 371 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Dolphins 298 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 12.1% of the time against the Dolphins in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Miami. When it comes to their defense, the Dolphins check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 245 yards per game against Miami this year (#21 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #16 against them with 4.69 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their linebackers, who rank #5 in the league when it comes to run-stopping. Miami's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 7.43 yards per target (#1-worst in the league).

Cleveland Browns Insights

  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • Amari Cooper has totaled far more air yards this year (105.0 per game) than he did last year (79.0 per game).

  • The Cleveland Browns have risked going for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Miami Dolphins Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Tua Tagovailoa to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (9.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).

  • The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • The Sharp Model projects Tyreek Hill to notch 0.61 receiving touchdowns in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Betting Trends

  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)

  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

  • Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)