Sharp App: Sports Betting

Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans Matchup Preview - December 4th, 2022

The Houston Texans come in as 7.5 point home underdog as they play the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium Sunday. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 2 in 2021. That game resulted in a road win for the Browns with a final score of 31-21. Although the Browns recorded the win, they failed to cover the -13.5 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 48.5 and which the Over hit.

Houston's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 395 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #5 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #5-most yards per carry: 5.17. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #25 spot in terms of yards per target (8.14). Texans safeties are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #1-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Texans check in at #29 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 209 yards per game (#27 in football). Their run game has ranked #19 with 4.24 yards per attempt on the ground.

Cleveland's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #26 in the league while allowing 382 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #3-most yards per carry: 5.36. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #5-worst in yards per target (8.4). The Browns defensive tackles have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #2-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Browns have ranked #3 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 246 yards per game (#11 in football). On the ground they've ranked #6 with 4.81 yards per carry.

Cleveland Browns Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Amari Cooper has accrued many more receiving yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).

  • The Houston Texans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.

Houston Texans Insights

  • The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

  • Nico Collins has notched many more air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (49.0 per game).

  • The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.30 Units / 19% ROI)

  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)

  • Donovan Peoples-Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 42% ROI)