Sharp App: Sports Betting

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Preview - December 11th, 2022

Sunday the Cleveland Browns (5-7) will battle the Cincinnati Bengals (8-4). Oddsmakers peg the Bengals as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 66%, leaving the Browns with a 34% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bengals -4.5 with a Game Total of 47.0.

Cincinnati's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #2 in the NFL at 376 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Bengals 293 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. When it comes to their defense, the Bengals check in at #11 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 225 yards per game against Cincinnati this year (#15 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #10 against them with 4.38 yards per ground attempt. This Bengals defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 74.3% of their passes (#5-lowest in the league). Cincinnati's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.1 yards per target (#5-worst in the league).

Cleveland's biggest weakness has been their run defense, ranking #29 in the league while allowing 5.23 yards per game on the ground. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #9-worst in yards per target (8.14). The Browns defensive tackles have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #3-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Browns have ranked #7 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 235 yards per game (#19 in football). On the ground they've ranked #7 with 4.75 yards per carry.

Cleveland Browns Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Deshaun Watson to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (18.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.1% in games he has played).

  • David Njoku's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this season, totaling 4.7 yards per game compared to a measly 2.5 last season.

  • The Cleveland Browns have gone for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Ja'Marr Chase has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (99.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 0.21 receiving touchdowns in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.

Betting Trends

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.15 Units / 20% ROI)

  • The Cleveland Browns have scored first in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 32% ROI)

  • Joe Mixon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.75 Units / 29% ROI)