Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - November 20th, 2022


The Cleveland Browns come in as 7.5 point road underdog as they travel to Highmark Stadium to play the Buffalo Bills. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 10 in 2019. That game resulted in a road win for the Browns with a final score of 19-16.

Buffalo's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #3 in the NFL at 380 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Bills 304 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 4.75 yards per carry. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 13.2% of the time against the Bills in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Buffalo. When it comes to their defense, the Bills check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 239 yards per game against Buffalo this year (#19 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #12 against them with 4.58 yards per ground attempt. This Bills defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 5.83 yards per target (#4-best in the league). Buffalo's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have caught 86% of their passes (#6-highest in the league).

Cleveland's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #5 in the league with 372 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their rushing attack, which is #3-best in football with 5.07 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Cleveland's o-line ranks #1-best in this regard. In terms of their defense, the Browns have ranked #24 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 248 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #29 with 5.31 yards per carry. Cleveland has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 60.8% completion rate (#2-lowest). Cleveland has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 9.2 yards per target (#3-worst).

Cleveland Browns Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • Amari Cooper has notched many more air yards this year (95.0 per game) than he did last year (79.0 per game).

  • The Cleveland Browns have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Buffalo Bills Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (31.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.1% in games he has played).

  • The Cleveland Browns defensive ends profile as the 8th-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to pass rush.

  • The Sharp Model projects Stefon Diggs to notch 0.78 receiving touchdowns in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs.

Betting Trends

  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)

  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)

  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)