Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) will battle the Tennessee Titans (7-3). Oddsmakers think this is a even matchup, as both the Bengals and the Titans have an implied win probablity of 50%. The current spread is the Bengals -1.0 with a Game Total of 42.5.

Tennessee's primary disadvantage has been their pass defense, which has allowed a monstrous 274 yards per game through the air this year, sliding them into the #1 spot among the league's worst. A big part of the problem is their inability to put pressure on the quarterback. It's taken them an average of 2.55 seconds after the snap before a defender gets close enough for the QB to feel it -- #4-slowest among all teams. Opposing wide receivers have given the Titans the most trouble, posting 178 yards per game against this defense (#2-worst in football). This presents a decided disadvantage for Tennessee given that the Bengals air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 7.75 yards per target (#7-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Titans check in at #26 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 185 yards per game (#29 in football). Their run game has ranked #18 with 4.37 yards per attempt on the ground.

Cincinnati's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #5 in the league with 372 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #4-best in football with 291 yards per game. This represents a particular advantage for Cincinnati given that the Titans have struggled so much to stop the pass this year, allowing 8.34 yards per target (#6-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Bengals have ranked #9 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 197 yards per game through the air against them (#9 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #11 with 4.37 yards per carry. Cincinnati has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 70.3% completion rate (#3-lowest). Cincinnati has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 79.7% completion rate (#4-highest).

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

  • The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

  • The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

  • The Tennessee Titans defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.05 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Ryan Tannehill to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (10.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.4% in games he has played).

  • Ryan Tannehill's throwing effectiveness has been refined this season, averaging 8.23 yards-per-target vs a measly 7.17 figure last season.

  • The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Betting Trends

  • The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 43% ROI)

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.55 Units / 37% ROI)

  • Tee Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)