Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Jets Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022


Sunday the Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) will battle the New York Jets (1-1). Oddsmakers peg the Bengals as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 70%, leaving the Jets with a 30% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bengals -6.0 with a Game Total of 45.0.

New York's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 400 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #1 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 5.02. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #32 spot in terms of yards per target (8.81). Not to rub salt in the wound, but New York has had these struggles despite stacking the box with an extra defender 22% of the time -- #3-most of any team in football. You'd think that would at least put a band-aid on the issue, but to this point it doesn't seem to be working very well. Jets linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #1-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Jets check in at #21 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 247 yards per game (#16 in football). Their run game has ranked #19 with 4.16 yards per attempt on the ground.

Cincinnati's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #4 in the league with 412 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #4-best in football with 324 yards per game. This represents a particular advantage for Cincinnati given that the Jets have struggled so much to stop the pass this year, allowing 8.81 yards per target (#1-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Bengals have ranked #19 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 250 yards per game through the air against them (#26 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #11 with 4.31 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their cornerbacks, which rank #3 in the league in locking down route-runners. Cincinnati has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 58 yards per game (#5-worst).

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

  • The weather forecast calls for light rain in this game... which usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

  • Ja'Marr Chase has totaled a colossal 107.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among WRs.

  • The Sharp Model projects Joe Mixon to rush for 0.84 TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

New York Jets Insights

  • The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup QB Joe Flacco in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

  • The New York Jets defensive ends profile as the 8th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

  • The New York Jets pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the league.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Jets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+5.35 Units / 85% ROI)

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 53% ROI)

  • Ty Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.20 Units / 73% ROI)