Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns Matchup Preview - October 31st, 2022
The Cleveland Browns come in as 3.0 point home underdog as they play the Cincinnati Bengals at FirstEnergy Stadium Monday. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 18 in 2021. That game resulted in a home win for the Browns with a final score of 21-16. Although the Browns recorded the win, they failed to cover the -6.5 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 38.0 and which the Under hit.
Cleveland's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #4 in football at 381 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Browns 5.27 yards per carry ranks #4-best in the NFL. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Cleveland's line ranks #2-best in the league in run blocking. This presents a decided advantage for Cleveland given that the Bengals haven't had much success in stopping the run this year, giving up 4.53 yards per carry (#18-worst in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Browns check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 249 yards per game against Cleveland this year (#19 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #27 against them with 5.12 yards per ground attempt. This Browns defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete just 56.4% of their passes (#3-lowest in the league). Cleveland's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.83 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).
Cincinnati's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #9 in the league with 364 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #3-best in football with 295 yards per game. This represents a particular advantage for Cincinnati given that the Browns have struggled so much to stop the pass this year, allowing 9.17 yards per target (#2-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Bengals have ranked #6 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 202 yards per game through the air against them (#6 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 with 4.53 yards per carry. Cincinnati has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 62.6% completion rate (#2-lowest). Cincinnati has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 81.5% completion rate (#8-highest).
Cincinnati Bengals Insights
The Sharp Model projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
Cleveland Browns Insights
The Sharp Model projects Jacoby Brissett to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (13.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.8% in games he has played).
Jacoby Brissett's pass-game efficiency has been refined this season, averaging 7.06 yards-per-target vs just 5.54 mark last season.
The Cleveland Browns have gone for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Betting Trends
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Jacoby Brissett has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.55 Units / 28% ROI)