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Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - January 22nd, 2023


Their last head-to-head matchup was a low scoring slugfest. In Week 17 of 2022 the Bengals won on the road beating the Bills 7-3. Cincinnati entered that game as a 2.5 point road underog. They had an implied win probablity of only 44% before pulling of the upset. The Game Total for that game was 51.0 and which the Under hit.

Buffalo's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #1 in football at 5.04 yards per carry. What makes the Bills run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 13.2% of the time, the #7-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Buffalo hasn't been thwarted. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Buffalo's 7.58 yards per target puts them #7 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Bills check in at #1 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 208 yards per game against Buffalo this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.34 yards per ground attempt. This Bills defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 32 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Buffalo's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 148 yards per game (#9-worst in the league).

Cincinnati's biggest strength has been their passing offense, ranking #5 in the league with 276 yards per game through the air. In terms of their defense, the Bengals have ranked #3 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 206 yards per game through the air against them (#9 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #5 with 4.24 yards per carry. Cincinnati has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 35 yards per game (#3-best). Cincinnati has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 77.7% completion rate (#3-highest).

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

  • The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

  • Ja'Marr Chase has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (97.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Buffalo Bills Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (30.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).

  • The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • The Sharp Model projects Stefon Diggs to notch 0.67 receiving touchdowns in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

Betting Trends

  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)

  • Tee Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 56% ROI)


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