Chicago Bears vs New York Jets Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022
Editor
Trevor Siemian and the Chicago Bears faceoff against Mike White and the New York Jets. The Jets enter the game as a huge favorite (-370) as the home team. New York is currently favored by -8.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 36.5.
New York's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 311 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #3-least yards per game: 4.11. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #4 in yards per target (6.72). A big factor in their success has been their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought a safety or extra defender up near the line of scrimmage 22% of the time this season, #3-most of any team in the league. This Jets run defense has been anchored by their defensive tackles, who grade out as the #3-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Jets check in at #20 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 221 yards per game (#24 in football). Their run game has ranked #15 with 4.44 yards per attempt on the ground.
Chicago's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #32 in the league with a mere 256 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #1-worst in football with 150 yards per game. This represents a particular disadvantage for Chicago given that the Jets have excelled in stopping the pass this year, allowing just 6.72 yards per target (#4-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Bears have ranked #15 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 194 yards per game through the air against them (#7 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #26 with 4.98 yards per carry. Chicago has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 29 yards per game (#2-best). Chicago has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 9.9 yards per target (#1-worst).
Chicago Bears Insights
The weather forecast calls for rain in this game... which typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Cole Kmet has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
The Sharp Model projects Cole Kmet to notch 0.15 receiving TDs this week, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
New York Jets Insights
The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Mike White in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Chicago Bears safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.
Betting Trends
The New York Jets have scored last in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.95 Units / 86% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Justin Fields has hit the Carries Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 64% ROI)