Chicago Bears vs New York Jets Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022

Editor

Trevor Siemian and the Chicago Bears faceoff against Mike White and the New York Jets. The Jets enter the game as a huge favorite (-370) as the home team. New York is currently favored by -8.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 36.5.

New York's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 311 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #3-least yards per game: 4.11. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #4 in yards per target (6.72). A big factor in their success has been their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought a safety or extra defender up near the line of scrimmage 22% of the time this season, #3-most of any team in the league. This Jets run defense has been anchored by their defensive tackles, who grade out as the #3-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Jets check in at #20 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 221 yards per game (#24 in football). Their run game has ranked #15 with 4.44 yards per attempt on the ground.

Chicago's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #32 in the league with a mere 256 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #1-worst in football with 150 yards per game. This represents a particular disadvantage for Chicago given that the Jets have excelled in stopping the pass this year, allowing just 6.72 yards per target (#4-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Bears have ranked #15 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 194 yards per game through the air against them (#7 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #26 with 4.98 yards per carry. Chicago has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 29 yards per game (#2-best). Chicago has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 9.9 yards per target (#1-worst).

Chicago Bears Insights

  • The weather forecast calls for rain in this game... which typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

  • Cole Kmet has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Cole Kmet to notch 0.15 receiving TDs this week, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among TEs.

New York Jets Insights

  • The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Mike White in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

  • The Chicago Bears safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • The Chicago Bears pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Jets have scored last in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.95 Units / 86% ROI)

  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)

  • Justin Fields has hit the Carries Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 64% ROI)