Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Matchup Preview - January 1st, 2023

Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears faceoff against Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. The Lions enter the game as a big favorite (-220) as the home team. Detroit is currently favored by -4.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 52.5.

Detroit's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 421 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #1 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #3-most yards per game (276) against the Lions. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their run defense, which has landed them in the #29 spot in terms of yards per carry (5.27). A big part of the problem is their inability to put pressure on the quarterback. It's taken them an average of 2.53 seconds after the snap before a defender gets close enough for the QB to feel it -- #6-slowest among all teams. Opposing wide receivers have given the Lions the most trouble, posting 191 yards per game against this defense (#2-worst in football). Detroit's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their cornerbacks, who rank just #31 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. This presents a decided disadvantage for Detroit given that the Bears air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 7.36 yards per target (#9-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Lions check in at #5 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 259 yards per game (#9 in football). Their run game has ranked #16 with 4.37 yards per attempt on the ground.

Chicago's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #32 in the league with a mere 258 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #1-worst in football with 161 yards per game. In terms of their defense, the Bears have ranked #23 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 217 yards per game through the air against them (#9 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #24 with 5.09 yards per carry. Chicago has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 37 yards per game (#4-best). Chicago has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 9.79 yards per target (#1-worst).

Chicago Bears Insights

• Cole Kmet has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).

• The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Detroit Lions Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Jared Goff to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (7.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.3% in games he has played).

• The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

• The Sharp Model projects Jared Goff to pass for 2.05 TDs in this week's game, on average: the most of all QBs.

Betting Trends

• The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 61% ROI)

• The Chicago Bears have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)

• Kalif Raymond has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 68% ROI)