Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022
Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears faceoff against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The Packers enter the game as a huge favorite (-455) as the home team. Green Bay is currently favored by -10.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 41.5.
Green Bay's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 324 yards per game -- #9-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #3-least yards per game: 192. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing running backs, who have managed just 26 yards per game against them (#31-least in football). This presents a decided advantage for Green Bay given that the Bears haven't had much success throwing the ball this year, managing a mere 6.74 yards per target (good for #10-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Packers check in at #27 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 209 yards per game (#28 in football). Their run game has ranked #27 with 3.81 yards per attempt on the ground.
Chicago's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #9 in the league while allowing just 324 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #3-least yards per game: 192. The Bears have done the best job shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 26 yards per game (#2-best). This represents a particular advantage for Chicago given that the Packers have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 6.74 yards per target (#10-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Bears have ranked #27 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 209 yards per game (#28 in football). On the ground they've ranked #27 with 3.81 yards per carry.
Chicago Bears Insights
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Cole Kmet has posted a monstrous 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 0.12 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among running backs.
Green Bay Packers Insights
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.2% pass rate.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in football.
The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have scored last in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.05 Units / 29% ROI)