Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022

Editor

Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears faceoff against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The Packers enter the game as a huge favorite (-455) as the home team. Green Bay is currently favored by -10.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 41.5.

Green Bay's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 324 yards per game -- #9-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #3-least yards per game: 192. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing running backs, who have managed just 26 yards per game against them (#31-least in football). This presents a decided advantage for Green Bay given that the Bears haven't had much success throwing the ball this year, managing a mere 6.74 yards per target (good for #10-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Packers check in at #27 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 209 yards per game (#28 in football). Their run game has ranked #27 with 3.81 yards per attempt on the ground.

Chicago's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #9 in the league while allowing just 324 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #3-least yards per game: 192. The Bears have done the best job shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 26 yards per game (#2-best). This represents a particular advantage for Chicago given that the Packers have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 6.74 yards per target (#10-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Bears have ranked #27 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 209 yards per game (#28 in football). On the ground they've ranked #27 with 3.81 yards per carry.

Chicago Bears Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Cole Kmet has posted a monstrous 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among tight ends.

  • THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 0.12 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among running backs.

Green Bay Packers Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.2% pass rate.

  • The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

  • The Green Bay Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)

  • The Chicago Bears have scored last in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)

  • Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.05 Units / 29% ROI)