Chargers vs Broncos Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 31st, 2023

a year ago

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This Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers will face off against the Denver Broncos in a divisional matchup at Empower Field at Mile High. Both teams will be looking to secure a victory and gain an edge in the standings. The game is scheduled to kick off at 4:25 PM ET.

The Chargers will have the advantage of an extra day of rest, which can provide them with additional time to prepare and recover. On the other hand, the Broncos will be playing on normal rest, potentially giving the Chargers an edge in terms of freshness.

The Chargers have had a challenging season, falling short of their preseason expectations with a record of 5-10. They have suffered three consecutive losses, while the Broncos have also struggled recently, losing their last two games.

When playing at home, the Broncos have shown strong performance, winning four out of their last five home games. In contrast, the Chargers enter the game on a cold streak, having lost three consecutive games.

The last time these two teams faced each other was in Week 14 of this season, resulting in a road win for the Broncos with a score of 24-7. It was considered an upset victory, as the Broncos were three-point underdogs with a 40% chance of winning the game.

The Broncos are currently favored to win this matchup, with odds suggesting a 62% chance of victory for them compared to a 38% chance for the Chargers. The spread, which initially opened at Broncos -5.5, has now shifted to Broncos -3. This significant move indicates that sharp bettors may be backing the Chargers.

With the Chargers seeking revenge for their previous loss against the Broncos, this game holds additional significance. The Chargers will need to find a way to overcome their recent struggles and put up more points, as the last matchup saw them struggle on the scoreboard.

As the game approaches, all eyes will be on Empower Field at Mile High, where the Broncos will aim to maintain their home-field advantage and the Chargers will look to turn their season around. The sportsbooks may have a lot of liability riding on the Broncos covering the spread, but only time will tell which team will come out on top in this divisional showdown.

Chargers Insights

The Chargers will be forced to use backup QB Easton Stick in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Gerald Everett has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (19.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).
In compiling a miserable rate of 3.55 adjusted yards per carry this year, the 5th-worst rushing attack in the NFL on a rate basis has been the Chargers.

Broncos Insights

The leading projections forecast Brandon Johnson to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack in this week's contest (15.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.0% in games he has played).
As it relates to linebackers rushing the passer, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL.
In this week's game, Javonte Williams is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs with 0.43 rushing touchdowns.

Betting Trends

The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)
Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 50% ROI)