Carolina Panthers vs Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022


Phillip Walker and the Carolina Panthers faceoff against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals enter the game as a huge favorite (-340) as the home team. Cincinnati is currently favored by -7.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 42.5.

Carolina's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #31 in the league with a mere 280 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #4-worst in football with 183 yards per game. Perhaps because they haven't been able to move the ball through the air, defenses have been able to stack the box against them to help stop the run, bringing up an extra defender 19.7% of the time. In terms of their defense, the Panthers have ranked #20 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 244 yards per game through the air against them (#20 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #11 with 4.47 yards per carry. Carolina has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.65 yards per target (#7-best). Carolina has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 83% completion rate (#3-highest).

Cincinnati's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #31 in football with a low 3.51 yards per carry. When it comes to their defense, the Bengals check in at #11 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 214 yards per game against Cincinnati this year (#9 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 against them with 4.51 yards per ground attempt. This Bengals defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 66% of their passes (#2-lowest in the league). Cincinnati's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 81.6% of their passes (#6-highest in the league).

Carolina Panthers Insights

  • The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

  • The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

  • The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Joe Burrow to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (14.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.9% in games he has played).

  • Joe Burrow has thrown for a lot more yards per game (286.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)

  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)

  • Ian Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.45 Units / 44% ROI)