Carolina Panthers vs Baltimore Ravens Matchup Preview - November 20th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Carolina Panthers (3-7) will battle the Baltimore Ravens (6-3). Oddsmakers peg the Ravens as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 84%, leaving the Panthers with a 16% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Ravens -12.5 with a Game Total of 41.5.

Carolina's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #31 in the league with a mere 274 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #4-worst in football with 174 yards per game. Perhaps because they haven't been able to move the ball through the air, defenses have been able to stack the box against them to help stop the run, bringing up an extra defender 19.7% of the time. In terms of their defense, the Panthers have ranked #23 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 236 yards per game through the air against them (#18 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 with 4.87 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their linebackers, which rank #1 in the league in terms of stopping the run. Carolina has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 70.9% completion rate (#3-highest).

Baltimore's primary disadvantage has been their pass defense, which has allowed a monstrous 283 yards per game through the air this year, sliding them into the #3 spot among the league's worst. Opposing tight ends have given the Ravens the most trouble, completing 82.2% of their targets (the #2-highest rate in football). Baltimore's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their linebackers, who rank just #26 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. When it comes to their offense, the Ravens check in at #27 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 207 yards per game (#27 in football). Their run game has ranked #14 with 4.63 yards per attempt on the ground.

Carolina Panthers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • D.J. Moore has posted far fewer air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects D.J. Moore to total 0.31 receiving touchdowns in this contest, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.

Baltimore Ravens Insights

  • The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

  • The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

  • The Carolina Panthers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.34 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 49% ROI)

  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 64% ROI)

  • Lamar Jackson has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+2.90 Units / 18% ROI)