Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022
Baker Mayfield and the Carolina Panthers faceoff against Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. The Giants enter the game as a slight favorite (-125) as the home team. New York is currently favored by -1.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 43.5.
New York's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 304 yards per game -- #2-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #2-least yards per game: 186. A big factor in their success has been the ability to shed blocks and get to the quarterback quickly; they've averaged just 2.31 seconds after the snap before getting pressure on the QB -- #1-quickest in the league. The New York Giants pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing running backs, who have managed just 21 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). New York's pass rush has been led by their defensive tackles who, ranking as the #7 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. This presents a decided advantage for New York given that the Panthers haven't had much success throwing the ball this year, managing a mere 5.91 yards per target (good for #2-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Giants check in at #30 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 206 yards per game (#30 in football). Their run game has ranked #28 with 3.7 yards per attempt on the ground.
Carolina's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #2 in the league while allowing just 304 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #2-least yards per game: 186. They've made it a habit of getting to the quarterback quickly, averaging just 2.31 seconds after the snap before applying pressure -- #1-quickest in the league. The Panthers have done the best job shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 21 yards per game (#1-best). Carolina's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #7-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular advantage for Carolina given that the Giants have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 5.91 yards per target (#2-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Panthers have ranked #30 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 206 yards per game (#30 in football). On the ground they've ranked #28 with 3.7 yards per carry.
Carolina Panthers Insights
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (10.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.4% in games he has played).
Baker Mayfield has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with a 61.3% Completion%, checking in at the 25th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
New York Giants Insights
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Saquon Barkley has put up a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to run for 0.67 TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
Kenny Golladay has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 36% ROI)