Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022


Baker Mayfield and the Carolina Panthers faceoff against Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. The Giants enter the game as a slight favorite (-125) as the home team. New York is currently favored by -1.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 43.5.

New York's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 304 yards per game -- #2-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #2-least yards per game: 186. A big factor in their success has been the ability to shed blocks and get to the quarterback quickly; they've averaged just 2.31 seconds after the snap before getting pressure on the QB -- #1-quickest in the league. The New York Giants pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing running backs, who have managed just 21 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). New York's pass rush has been led by their defensive tackles who, ranking as the #7 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. This presents a decided advantage for New York given that the Panthers haven't had much success throwing the ball this year, managing a mere 5.91 yards per target (good for #2-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Giants check in at #30 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 206 yards per game (#30 in football). Their run game has ranked #28 with 3.7 yards per attempt on the ground.

Carolina's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #2 in the league while allowing just 304 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #2-least yards per game: 186. They've made it a habit of getting to the quarterback quickly, averaging just 2.31 seconds after the snap before applying pressure -- #1-quickest in the league. The Panthers have done the best job shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 21 yards per game (#1-best). Carolina's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #7-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular advantage for Carolina given that the Giants have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 5.91 yards per target (#2-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Panthers have ranked #30 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 206 yards per game (#30 in football). On the ground they've ranked #28 with 3.7 yards per carry.

Carolina Panthers Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (10.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.4% in games he has played).

  • Baker Mayfield has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with a 61.3% Completion%, checking in at the 25th percentile.

  • The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

New York Giants Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Saquon Barkley has put up a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among running backs.

  • THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to run for 0.67 TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among RBs.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)

  • Kenny Golladay has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 36% ROI)