Sharp App: Sports Betting

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022

Sunday the Buffalo Bills (6-1) will battle the New York Jets (5-3). Oddsmakers peg the Bills as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 82%, leaving the Jets with a 18% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bills -10.5 with a Game Total of 46.0.

Buffalo's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #2 in the league with 389 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #2-best in football with 310 yards per game. Perhaps because the defense has to take their pass game so seriously, the Bills have also managed to rush for 4.94 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 13.2% of the time against the Bills in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Buffalo's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Bills have ranked #4 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 224 yards per game through the air against them (#14 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #3 with 4.1 yards per carry. Buffalo has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 6.1 yards per target (#5-best). Buffalo has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up a 86% completion rate (#10-highest).

New York's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 328 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #2-least yards per game: 4.02. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #5 in yards per target (6.72). A big factor in their success has been their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought a safety or extra defender up near the line of scrimmage 22% of the time this season, #3-most of any team in the league. This Jets run defense has been anchored by their defensive tackles, who grade out as the #5-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Jets check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 241 yards per game (#16 in football). Their run game has ranked #14 with 4.62 yards per attempt on the ground.

Buffalo Bills Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Josh Allen has passed for a lot more yards per game (309.0) this season than he did last season (249.0).

  • The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency against WRs this year, yielding 7.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.

New York Jets Insights

  • The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

  • Tyler Conklin has compiled many more air yards this season (49.0 per game) than he did last season (29.0 per game).

  • The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Jets have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)

  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 13% ROI)

  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.30 Units / 29% ROI)