Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022


Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills faceoff against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. The Bills enter the game as a big favorite (-210) despite being on the road. Buffalo is currently favored by -4.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 53.5.

Miami's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #24 in football with a low 314 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their ground attack, clocking in at #29 in the league with just 3.53 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Miami, their line ranks #2-worst in the league in run blocking. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Miami has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.51 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Dolphins check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 236 yards per game against Miami this year (#19 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 against them with 4.65 yards per ground attempt. This Dolphins defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 5.02 yards per target (#1-best in the league). Miami's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 8.89 yards per target (#1-worst in the league).

Buffalo's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #1 in the league while allowing just 280 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #1-least yards per game: 179. That's not to take anything away from their run defense, though, which checks in at #6 in yards per carry (4.07). The Bills have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 114 yards per game (#1-best). Buffalo's best position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank #1 in the league in locking down route-runners. Buffalo's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive ends, which check in as the #6-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular advantage for Buffalo given that the Dolphins have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 6.51 yards per target (#7-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Bills have ranked #6 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 319 yards per game (#5 in football). On the ground they've ranked #12 with 4.38 yards per carry.

Buffalo Bills Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (27.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).

  • Stefon Diggs has compiled a monstrous 116.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among wide receivers.

  • The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.16 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Betting Trends

  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 42% ROI)

  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)

  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 52% ROI)