Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Preview - January 2nd, 2023

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills faceoff against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bills enter the game as a favorite (-140) despite being on the road. Buffalo is currently favored by -2.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 50.5.

Buffalo's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #3 in the league with 367 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their rushing attack, which is #1-best in football with 5.04 yards per carry. This is all the more impressive because they've faced a stacked box the #7-most of any team in the league at 13.2%. Even with an extra tackler near the line of scrimmage, the Bills have still thrived on the ground. With how successful they've been on the ground, this has opened up opportunities through the air as well; Buffalo has averaged 7.59 yards per target, which ranks them #7 in football. In terms of their defense, the Bills have ranked #9 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 234 yards per game through the air against them (#16 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 with 4.31 yards per carry. Buffalo has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 36 yards per game (#2-best). Buffalo has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 166 yards per game (#6-worst).

Cincinnati's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #2 in the NFL at 378 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Bengals 296 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. When it comes to their defense, the Bengals check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 234 yards per game against Cincinnati this year (#16 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #6 against them with 4.23 yards per ground attempt. This Bengals defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 73.6% of their passes (#3-lowest in the league). Cincinnati's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.03 yards per target (#5-worst in the league).

Buffalo Bills Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (29.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.5% in games he has played).

• Gabe Davis has notched far more air yards this year (95.0 per game) than he did last year (63.0 per game).

• The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

• The Sharp Model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

• The Buffalo Bills linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

• The Cincinnati Bengals have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Betting Trends

• The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)

• The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.95 Units / 51% ROI)

• Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.55 Units / 40% ROI)