Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears Matchup Preview - December 24th, 2022
Saturday the Buffalo Bills (11-3) will battle the Chicago Bears (3-11). Oddsmakers peg the Bills as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 77%, leaving the Bears with a 23% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bills -8.0 with a Game Total of 40.5.
Buffalo's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #6 in the league with 365 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #5-best in football with 279 yards per game. Perhaps because the defense has to take their pass game so seriously, the Bills have also managed to rush for 4.77 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 13.2% of the time against the Bills in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Buffalo's offense to succeed through the air. This represents a particular advantage for Buffalo given that the Bears have struggled so much to stop the pass this year, allowing 8.53 yards per target (#2-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Bills have ranked #11 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 238 yards per game through the air against them (#19 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 with 4.51 yards per carry. Buffalo has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 5.49 yards per target (#3-best). Buffalo has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 169 yards per game (#5-worst).
Chicago's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 262 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 161 yards per game. When it comes to their defense, the Bears check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 219 yards per game against Chicago this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #23 against them with 4.89 yards per ground attempt. This Bears defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 35 yards per game (#3-best in the league). Chicago's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.87 yards per target (#1-worst in the league).
Buffalo Bills Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears safeties rank as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Buffalo Bills have used play action on 33.7% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (4th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Chicago Bears Insights
Justin Fields's throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 60.3% to 64.0%.
The Sharp Model projects Justin Fields to rush for 0.33 TDs in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
Betting Trends
The Chicago Bears have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.95 Units / 17% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 7 away games (+7.15 Units / 86% ROI)