Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022

Editor

The Baltimore Ravens come in as 3.0 point home underdog as they play the Buffalo Bills at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday. Their last head-to-head matchup was a low scoring slugfest. In Week 19 of 2020 the Bills won on the road beating the Ravens 17-3.

Baltimore's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 380 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #6 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #1-most yards per game (293) against the Ravens. Opposing wide receivers have given the Ravens the most trouble, posting 189 yards per game against this defense (#1-worst in football). Baltimore's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their cornerbacks, who rank just #27 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. Baltimore's defensive tackles are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #5-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Baltimore given that the Bills air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 7.75 yards per target (#9-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Ravens check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 257 yards per game (#13 in football). Their run game has ranked #24 with 4.06 yards per attempt on the ground.

Buffalo's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #1 in the league while allowing just 276 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #1-least yards per game: 177. That's not to take anything away from their run defense, though, which checks in at #4 in yards per carry (4.02). The Bills have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 115 yards per game (#1-best). Buffalo's best position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank #1 in the league in locking down route-runners. Buffalo's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive ends, which check in as the #5-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Bills have ranked #6 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 324 yards per game (#4 in football). On the ground they've ranked #10 with 4.4 yards per carry.

Buffalo Bills Insights

  • The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

  • Josh Allen's passing precision has gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.6% to 72.2%.

  • The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to pass for 1.99 TDs in this contest, on average: the most of all QBs.

Baltimore Ravens Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Lamar Jackson to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (38.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.1% in games he has played).

  • Mark Andrews has notched a monstrous 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among TEs.

  • The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.20 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Baltimore Ravens have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.10 Units / 40% ROI)

  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.70 Units / 38% ROI)

  • Kenyan Drake has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 60% ROI)