Bears vs Lions Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - November 19th, 2023
Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears faceoff against Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. The Lions enter the game as a huge favorite (-390) as the home team. Detroit is currently favored by -8.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 48.0.
Detroit's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #2 in football at 415 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Lions 5.03 yards per carry ranks #2-best in the NFL. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Detroit's line ranks #5-best in the league in run blocking. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Detroit's 7.68 yards per target puts them #7 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Lions check in at #9 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 252 yards per game against Detroit this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #30 against them with 3.65 yards per ground attempt. This Lions defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 67% of their passes (#2-lowest in the league). Detroit's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 6.52 yards per target (#9-worst in the league).
Chicago's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #1 in the league while allowing just 3.44 yards per carry this season. The Bears linebackers have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #5-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Bears have ranked #24 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 209 yards per game (#26 in football). On the ground they've ranked #13 with 4.07 yards per carry.
Bears Insights
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
As it relates to safeties getting after the quarterback, Detroit's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.
The Lions pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.13 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in football.
Lions Insights
The model projects Craig Reynolds to be a much smaller part of his team's running game in this week's game (0.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.9% in games he has played).
Jared Goff's 68.2% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a material growth in his passing accuracy over last season's 65.1% figure.
The Detroit Lions have been among the top passing teams in the league this year (#6 overall), posting an excellent 278.0 adjusted yards per game through the air.
Betting Trends
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 63% ROI)