Sharp App: Sports Betting

Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Preview - October 27th, 2022

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens faceoff against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers enter the game as a slight favorite (-130) as the home team. Tampa Bay is currently favored by -2.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 46.5.

Tampa Bay's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #30 in football with a low 3.49 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, their line ranks #7-worst in the league in run blocking. When it comes to their defense, the Buccaneers check in at #6 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 201 yards per game against Tampa Bay this year (#5 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 against them with 4.52 yards per ground attempt. This Buccaneers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 17 yards per game (#1-best in the league). Tampa Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 82% of their passes (#7-highest in the league).

Baltimore's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #26 in the league while allowing 393 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #5-most yards per game: 290. The Ravens have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete 87.6% of their targets (#1-highest in football). In terms of their offense, the Ravens have ranked #29 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 205 yards per game (#24 in football). On the ground they've ranked #21 with 4.25 yards per carry.

Baltimore Ravens Insights

  • The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

  • Lamar Jackson has thrown for quite a few less yards per game (205.0) this year than he did last year (238.0).

  • The Sharp Model projects Mark Andrews to accrue 0.48 receiving TDs in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Rachaad White to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (27.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played).

  • Mike Evans has put up quite a few more air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (99.0 per game).

  • The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the NFL.

Betting Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 72% ROI)

  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)

  • Tom Brady has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 43% ROI)